I always enjoy naysayers being wrong, the ones that is, that said it with such conviction.  The interesting thing about the latest bigtime  success story, the Apple iPhone, is that it was launched during a time where naysayers really had their say (blogs blogs and more blogs) and therefore they are well documented as what they are: ANALysts – with emphasis on the first 4 letters.  Here’s a  google search on the negbobs to enjoy…its funny, I notice pretty much all the reasons for predicted failure were likely the reasons for its success.  Of course, no one had a clue about the app store’s success or failure at the time.

“iphone will fail” – Google Search.

I especially enjoyed this querp:

The average person doesn’t even use the WAP browser on their phone, let alone any full blown OSX apps! What people want in a mobile phone is a phone; they don’t need all of these extras. Extra software just makes it more difficult to perform the main function of the phone: to make phone calls.

Yea, that’s brilliant, using WAP as a measuring stick (yeah the same WAP guys who said users are stupid…then again they went IPO with a symbol “PHCM”.  Ok, so they laughed to the bank I guess)

…anyway, this is akin to that guy 50 years or so ago saying there is a world market for about 7 computers or whatever, or that guy who said “No one will need more than 637KB of memory for a personal computer”.

To give these guys a break (not really),  all analysts that predict anything (fail or success) are probing in the area of the body part their name includes.

The ones that get things right once in awhile?  Same category as far as I can tell.  I suggest people read  The Drunkard’s Walk if you want to disagree with me.   It verifies everything we suspect,  broken clocks can be right twice a day, they just don’t get acclaimed to be brilliant fortune tellers.  Oh yes, it also makes the other point we saw in the wight rooms in high school:  “luck is opportunity meeting preparation”.

Highly suggested reading.  Here’s a overview of the book:

In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious cases, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.

The rise and fall of your favorite movie star of the most reviled CEO–in fact, of all our destinies–reflects as much as planning and innate abilities. Even the legendary Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth’s single-season home run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky. And it might be shocking to realize that you are twice as likely to be killed in a car accident on your way to buying a lottery ticket than you are to win the lottery.

How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars, the highest rating, in one journal and in another it was called the worst wine of the decade? Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of change and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor’s office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow’s insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire.

Who was that CEO he’s talking about?? oh yeah the guy who said:

“No one will need more than 637KB of memory for a personal computer.”